We buy XYZ shares at $25 each.
After 1 year, XYZ will pay us a $1/share dividend — IF it survives until then.
And each year XYZ survives, it will raise its dividend 10%.
But any given year, XYZ has a 5% chance of going under.
What’s our probability of breaking even or better?

26%
< 25%

32%
>= 25%, < 50%

20%
>= 50%, < 75%

22%
>= 75%

1,840 votes • Final results
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Thanks for this new interesting brain teaser!
Looking forward solving the next. And the next. 😁

Nov 27, 2021 · 3:52 PM UTC

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