It's hard for me to talk about without breaking confidences, but this type of stuff is happening everywhere. Banker called me panicked today and said he had three borrowers warn of default. Two business owner friends called to discuss layoffs and how much "runway" they have.
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Everyone is either hurting or in denial. If you have long feedback loops (B2B contracts), it might be easy to look at revenue and not see a problem. But, my guess is that your earliest KPI around bid activity are off a cliff.
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No small business has a fortress balance sheet. In practice most business owners don't live month-to-month, but they do live quarter-to-quarter. And, most are low-margin businesses with customer concentration. Most small businesses, and especially hospitality-based, are toast.

9:41 PM ยท Mar 17, 2020

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There's so much pain here, or coming soon. Our businesses will still suffer, but should be fine. I'm just devastated for so many owners who have worked a lifetime to build and will lose everything. And, for the many long-time employees who will soon be jobless.
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My DMs are filled with questions and anecdotes. It's crushing. Here's a good example: "Call from rural hospital CEO. Already almost out of cash and can't make payroll without elective surgery after next paycheck."
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Reality is just grim. Hang on as long as you can and pray things turn before you run out of cash.
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Replying to @BrentBeshore
Yup. Group I'm with opened a restaurant last year with 100% equity. Waiting to sell/mortgage the place until we knew what we could afford. Even with no rent we're gonna be losing a good bit of money staying open / trying to keep our full time people working.
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Man, I'm sorry. At a loss what else to say. Hang in there.
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Replying to @BrentBeshore
This is so much worse than 2008. I feel a calm in this storm and am fortunate beyond what I deserve, but mainly just feel heartsick for others. Sad for what so many good people will have to go through. We'll make it to the other side together, but it's going to be a tough road.
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And, everyone who is worried about their net worth are the lucky ones. I talked with a guy who runs an orphanage in Guatemala last night. It has been shut down, which I don't even know what that means. Literally makes me want to throw up.
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