Why a SARS-CoV-2 variant that's 50% more transmissible would in general be a much bigger problem than a variant that's 50% more deadly. A short thread... 1/
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So if my understanding is correct, Greater transmisibility is a far worse outcome than increased severity as the proportion of people effected is greater?
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The same proportion of people who are infected die, but far more people are infected in a given time/population.

2:53 PM ยท Dec 28, 2020

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Ah I see, so the severity of the disease has not changed due to the new variation but more people infected. This is unique for a variation in a virus as the usual path is greater transmission but reduced severity.
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Thanks ๐Ÿ˜Š and you're welcome.
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Well stated, thank you. Understanding this dynamic doesn't require math skills at all.
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We are able to save some people after many weeks in hospital. If hospitalizations increase due to spread, they will also die. Also, we will see collapse of services if a lot more people are sick even if they recover at home. That may be deadly.
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With a collapse in services, you also get more people with treatable conditions (heart attacks, stroke, etc) dying due to lack of facilities or healthcare professionals.
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Taken step further, so far more people die because more are infected? From example given, instead of 100 people, we now have 900 people dying?
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