Rob Lee @RALee85

PhD student @warstudies. Senior Fellow @FPRI. Previously @USMC, @ColumbiaSIPA, @CentreAST, and @AlfaFellowship. Focused on Russian defense policy.

Joined November 2015
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Rob Lee @RALee85
Jan 18
My argument regarding Russia's behavior: 1) Moscow switched from deterrence to compellence 2) The key issue is Moscow believes Kyiv will remain hostile and is increasing its defensive capabilities 3) the costs of inaction are greater than an escalation fpri.org/article/2022/01/mos…

Moscow’s Compellence Strategy - Foreign Policy Research Institute

How ambitious are Russia's foreign policy objectives, and how much force does Moscow believe it must employ to achieve them? Moscow has submitted various

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It seems Russia's goals in Ukraine have gone through three phases: 1) Regime change (probably lasted through the first 1-2 weeks) 2) Compellence 3) Medium to long-term occupation of more Ukrainian territory
max seddon
 @maxseddon
8h
Vladimir Putin has lost interest in diplomatic efforts to end the war, according to three people briefed on conversations with the Russian president. Instead, he appears set on seizing as much Ukrainian territory as possible. New, with @HenryJFoy: ft.com/content/a16c4ecd-e835…
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Worth noting that a long-term occupation of more Ukrainian territory comes with serious risks and costs for Russia. It has committed the vast majority of its ground units to the war in Ukraine. The Russian military isn't in a great position to respond to other crises.
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Rob Lee @RALee85
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Major Artyom Lazarenko was the operations officer for the 439th Rocket Artillery Brigade armed with Smerch MLRS. He was killed in Kherson on March 15. t.me/informnapalm/7633?singl… vk.com/wall-106160452_253011 yandex.ru/turbo/regnum.ru/s/… pskov.aif.ru/incidents/pyat_…
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Major Artyom Lazarenko was the operations officer for the 439th Rocket Artillery Brigade armed with Smerch MLRS. He was killed in Kherson on March 15. t.me/informnapalm/7633?singl… vk.com/wall-106160452_253011 yandex.ru/turbo/regnum.ru/s/… pskov.aif.ru/incidents/pyat_…
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Rob Lee @RALee85
13h
Video of Russian forces using a UR-77 mine-clearing line charge in Rubizhne. t.me/npo_dvina/6067 t.me/sashakots/31673
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Jakub Janovsky @Rebel44CZ
12h
This appears to be the Polish Warmate loitering munition - AFAIK, Ukraine has obtained some before the war and might have received more after the war started. With their 40km range, they should be quite effective.
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Rob Lee @RALee85
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Russian BM-27 Uragan MLRS firing on Ukrainian positions in the Lyman area. t.me/ChDambiev/15894
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Rob Lee @RALee85
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Low-flying Russian Su-25 over the Donbas. t.me/ChDambiev/15898
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🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker @UAWeapons
5h
#Ukraine: As a few of the NLAW launchers delivered to Ukraine by the UK have ran into battery issues (Running out too fast, or not functioning well in the cold), well, as ever, local forces are coming up with solutions.
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Rob Lee @RALee85
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Video of a Russian Tigr vehicle with two Vystrels. t.me/ChDambiev/15904
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Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ @CalibreObscura
2h
Ukrainian SOF firing a buggy-mounted 9M111 Fagot ATGM
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I wrote about the fight in the Donbas. I think Russia will likely have some tactical successes but it will be slow, costly, and probably won't lead to strategic gains. Attrition is already a problem, and it will limit what the Russian military can achieve. economist.com/by-invitation/…

Rob Lee on why attrition will be a critical factor in the battle for Donbas

The expert on Russia’s armed forces says Vladimir Putin will struggle to achieve his goals

economist.com
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An additional point. MANPADS are still an issue for Russian helicopters near the front lines, but it isn't clear how strong Ukraine's short and medium-range air defenses are near the Donbas. Russia's ability to conduct air strikes effectively could be critical.
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Video of a Russian Tigr vehicle with two Vystrels. t.me/ChDambiev/15904
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Rob Lee @RALee85
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A captured Russian Msta-S howitzer being loaded onto a trailer. t.me/mysiagin/7293
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Rob Lee @RALee85
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A Ukrainian BTR-4E vehicle firing its 30mm cannon at Russian troops. t.me/mysiagin/7321
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Another video of DNR troops and Russian naval infantrymen using a BTR-82A for cover in Mariupol from April 18. 3/ t.me/milchronicles/356
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Russian BM-27 Uragan MLRS firing on Ukrainian positions in the Lyman area. t.me/ChDambiev/15894
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Low-flying Russian Su-25 over the Donbas. t.me/ChDambiev/15898
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A Ukrainian BTR-4E vehicle firing its 30mm cannon at Russian troops. t.me/mysiagin/7321
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