We can't understand the present if we don't understand the past. This thread will show you the history of death and disease outbreaks in Sweden. All source data is available for download from the Statistics Sweden website. Here are monthly DPM since 1851:
10:01 AM · Oct 7, 2020
These are the values I used for 2020. I've tried to be conservative - where there's a chance deaths might be understated, I've methodically adjusted them upwards. Also - I started this project over a month ago, so newer data is now available. These are still good though.
The yellow line in the first chart is a LOESS regression. It's like a moving average, but more robust and tracks better with the center. It measures our changing expectation of mortality. Here are only the positive differences between the monthly DPM and the yellow line:
Sweden records monthly deaths since 1851, but annual data goes back to 1749. It shows just how brutal human history has been. In 1773, a staggering 1 in 19 Swedes died. I also show what 2020 would look like if Sweden experienced a second Covid wave, doubling Jan-Jun deaths.
If you want to see what earlier years might have looked like for Sweden, these are the age-adjusted death rates for the USA from 1900-2019.
Adjusting for population doesn't give a full picture. Age adjustment shows what each year would have looked like if it happened to a population with the same age profile. I use the population of 2000. We see a very different picture to that of the crude death rates.Show this thread
Sweden has taken a measured approach to the pandemic. It hasn't experienced an unprecedented disaster, even in the context of the past 50 years. While all covid deaths are tragic, the consequences of extreme measures are also tragic. It is best to find a balance.
Check out a similar analysis of the USA here:
We can't understand the present if we don't understand the past. In this thread, you'll see what the past 120 years looked like for the USA. The source data is all available on the CDC website, though it was a real pain to aggregate. This chart shows monthly DPM since 1900:Show this thread
I reposted this entire thread with the typo fixed and a few extras, including sources: nitter.net/VoidSurf1…
We can't understand the present if we don't understand the past. This thread will show you the history of death and disease outbreaks in Sweden. Source data was all retrieved from Statistics Sweden. Here are monthly DPM since 1851: (repost - caption typo fixed + improvements)Show this thread