Chief Futurist & Partner @PrimeMoversLab. Author: Nexus Series / Infinite Resource. Faculty @SingularityU. Energy, climate, & innovation wonk. Optimist.

Seattle
Joined May 2007
Looks legit.
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Should I be concerned about this, @JamesSACorey, @AbrahamHanover ?
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Even net zero by 2050 looks daunting (though within our power to achieve). If I were to look at our technical & policy progress, I see us being able to achieve something close to SSP 4-3.4: Cutting emissions in half by 2050, and to zero by 2080. Worst case- IMHO is SSP2-4.5. 3/n
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SSP2-4.5 has emissions not even peaking until 2040, and dropping 75% by 2100. (Yellow line.) We can do better than that. 4/n
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Where does that put us in warming? SSP4-3.4 leads to about 2.2C of warming, plus or minus some tenths of a degree. SSP2-4.5 (what I consider a worst case) leads to ~2.7C of warming, plus or minus. (Both are on the right graph.) 5/n
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Show this thread
One of the core reasons I'm hopeful about the energy transition. Cleantech (in this case solar) keeps growing faster than all "reasonable" forecasts. (With inspiration from @AukeHoekstra and others.)
A number of you asked for my slides and why I remain hopeful about the clean energy transition. The talk was for a Chinese audience. You can find the slides here: bit.ly/NaamCleanEnergyTransi… fyi @Noahpinion @ezraklein @bznotes @Joshmedia @JigarShahDC @cleantechinv and others.
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GIF
The James Webb Space Telescope is the 8th object humanity has sent to L2. It'll join 2 others still there. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List…
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New geothermal power technologies offer the potential of cheap, reliable clean energy to complement solar & wind. Want to learn more? Tune into this @PrimeMoversLab webinar with @lizvstein @CarlyAnde @elidourado @TimMLatimer and Carlos Araque of Quise. medium.com/prime-movers-lab/…
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The ongoing reductions in space launch cost are just insane. SpaceX's Starship, at high launch cadence, could bring launch costs down by a factor of nearly 1,000 vs the 2000s. Great analysis by @lizvstein medium.com/prime-movers-lab/…
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Space launch, like other sectors, has a virtuous cycle where scale brings down costs, which expands the market, which brings down costs. medium.com/prime-movers-lab/…
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Deeply proud to know @FrancesHaugen_ as she speaks truth to power regarding Facebook's financial incentives vs the well-being of the public. On 60 Minutes, no less. cbsnews.com/news/facebook-wh…
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So you have a breakthrough technology. How do you scale up manufacturing of it, to meet demand and lower costs? Join @PrimeMoversLab partners and three experienced experts in a webinar on that topic, October 6th. medium.com/prime-movers-lab/…
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The juxtaposition of nature and infrastructure.
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Energy is a superset of electricity. This view is more helpful.
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Sunset paddle. Keeping cool in the northwest heat.
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Went to visit @leopd, and his robot dog me greeted at the door.
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I looked at IEA's future solar cost forecast (WEO 2019) vs a simple 30% learning rate in the second half of this: rameznaam.com/2020/05/14/sol…
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Wind power costs have dropped at 2-4x the pace expected in 2015. We're still substantially underestimating future wind power cost declines, IMHO. nature.com/articles/s41560-0…
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