Wondering about how far wind or solar can fall over the next ten years. Is there any reason why we wouldn’t see $1 or $2 / MWh within a decade? @ramez @NatBullard @MLiebreich
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No. Solar does still cost money. The experience curve never goes to zero. As someone who has to explain these auctions, anything under $20/MWh today is definitely not the whole story of what the plant is being paid.
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What about this view from @MLiebreich
And that's only assuming 5 more doublings in 30 years - there have been 9 in the last 20 years. TLDR: Solar power is going to cost less than 0.2c/kWh ($2/MWh) in the best locations and less than 0.5c/kWh ($5/MWh) in almost all countries around the world by 2050. 😎😎😎
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I think it is wrong. (Michael is my ex boss and mentor, btw). Too many sources conflate auction prices right now with cost of generation, without understanding the terms of those auctions.
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Coming in late here. Azeem: Note that experience curves are reductions in cost per *doubling* of cumulative scale. Not reductions in cost over time. So we won't see $1-2/MWh wind in 10 years because there aren't that many plausible doublings of solar scale in that (or any?) time.
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Jenny and I differ in that I believe it's quite plausible that experience curves apply to whole solar electricity cost (and not just modules). But even so, at current rates, you need 5 more doublings (32x scaleup) to get to $5/MWh as an average LCOE in very sunny places.

Oct 12, 2020 · 9:28 PM UTC

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As others have pointed out here, once solar is that cheap (or even $10/MWh), the real issue isn't the cost of solar anymore. It's the cost of storage. Or how many hours a day of sunlight you have on your least-sunny days. Or the cost of wind or other resources that balance solar.
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Storage or piping it around?
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Electrolysis could add another 1 or even 2 doublings of cumulative demand for solar capacity.
Sorry for the stupid question: Why are the costs on this plot ~0.1 $/MWh if the costs now are ~30 $/MWh?
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Maybe the y axis should be $/kWh?
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