What about this view from @MLiebreich
And that's only assuming 5 more doublings in 30 years - there have been 9 in the last 20 years. TLDR: Solar power is going to cost less than 0.2c/kWh ($2/MWh) in the best locations and less than 0.5c/kWh ($5/MWh) in almost all countries around the world by 2050. 😎😎😎
Coming in late here. Azeem: Note that experience curves are reductions in cost per *doubling* of cumulative scale. Not reductions in cost over time. So we won't see $1-2/MWh wind in 10 years because there aren't that many plausible doublings of solar scale in that (or any?) time.
Jenny and I differ in that I believe it's quite plausible that experience curves apply to whole solar electricity cost (and not just modules). But even so, at current rates, you need 5 more doublings (32x scaleup) to get to $5/MWh as an average LCOE in very sunny places.
Oct 12, 2020 · 9:28 PM UTC